Tory Flick Drummond set to lose to Lib Dem candidate Danny Chambers according to poll

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Drummond and Chambers

The final opinion poll by leading pollsters YouGov predicts Conservative Flick Drummond will lose to Lib Dem Danny Chambers in the battle for the Winchester constituency.

YouGov reckons Mr Chambers could win around 52% of votes to Mrs Drummond’s 31% with Reform on 8%, Labour on 5% and Greens on 3%. Other candidates may gain 0.3%.

The Winchester constituency includes a large part of the old Meon Valley seat which has disappeared in boundary changes.

The battle for Fareham and Waterlooville, which includes Wickham, Knowle and Denmead, is likely to be won by former Conservative Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who YouGov believes may win with 34.8% against the nearest rivals, Labour on 23% and Lib Dems on 21%.

Hamble Valley constituency, which includes Whiteley, Shedfield, Hedge End, Botley, Titchfield, Warsash, Park Gate, Netley and Bursledon, is expected to be won by the Conservatives, as YouGov predicts their candidate Paul Holmes will take around 38% of votes against the Lib Dems 25% and Labour’s 18%.

Nationally, the YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for a historic election victory with a 202-seat majority with the Conservatives being crushed with a record-low number of seats.

YouGov’s central projections are vote shares of 22% for the Conservatives, 39% for Labour, 15% for Reform UK, 12% for the Liberal Democrats and 7% for the Greens.

These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.

YouGov predicts as many as 16 of the 26 cabinet ministers seeking re-election will lose their seats including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

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